(The Exchange Market Report is intended to help Sellers evaluate their position in the market and plan for future action. It is also intended to identify the very real connections between the equestrian industry and other seemingly unrelated industries, and to promote the use of modern, mainstream, real world solutions to our issues.)
Data through December 31, 2009 - (click here for a printable PDF of this report)
Ready for a roller coaster ride? You know the kind. The rickety, old-fashioned wood type that leaves the gate limping and nails every cranny in the track. The kind that catapults gravity up, down and around as it slings from turn to turn. The kind that bruises as it jerks from one lopsided plane to another. Remember that kind? That code violating, permit ignoring, oversight denying, millennia preceding ride is our 2009 equine sales market, and the entire 2009 economy for that matter, and the thrill ride isn’t over yet. As we braced for another stomach vacating drop in the summer of 2009, hearts lodged firmly in throat, the market began a slow, tension filled crawl to the heavens. It continues to rise towards some indeterminable climax. As passengers we remain locked in stunned anticipation, unsure what comes next but, of course, unable to avoid it anyway.
So fasten your seatbelts folks, and hang onto those cookies (or maybe grab a glass of wine!) and join me as I explore the sometimes tedious, yet always revealing, trends of 2009.
2009 Quick Summary:
Sales slowed to a predictable trickle for seven months from November, 2008 through May, 2009, showed slight recovery in the summer of ‘09, and shot through the roof in October. The October surge coincided with a recovery of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to pre-crash levels, an interesting coincidence discussed further below. Sales continued through November with another peak in early December. Sales and leases of Exchange marketed horses in 2009 totaled nearly $1,800,000, and $1.5m of that occurred in the final two quarters. Simultaneously, web traffic at ExchangeHJ.com rose for at least 3 straight months and logged several record highs.
I. Economic Indicators: The Dow Jones Industrial Average & ExchangeHunterJumper.com
Monthly traffic at ExchangeHJ.com is a great indicator of strength in the equine sales market, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a great indicator of strength in the economy as a whole. What is most unique is the manner in which these two trends mimic each other throughout this economically tumultuous year.
ExchangeHunterJumper.com traffic didn’t fall from ridiculously inflated heights such as the Dow in late 2008, but it did log a perceptive drop. The crash of the Dow in November, 2008 with a close of 7,552 points was followed by a record low in ExchangeHJ.com traffic in December. Both numbers fell again in February & March of 2009 with the Dow achieving lows unseen since the previous millennia. Stability for either average was not regained until a slow upswing began in July and continued throughout the remainder of the year. The Dow’s first resurgence above the 10,000 mark in 2009 occurred in October and coincided with a 3-sale week at The Exchange, and a promising tenacity to close above 10,000 throughout November inspired confident Buyers in December. These trends demonstrate a strong correlation between the stability of our equine market and the strength of the Dow Jones and other global financial markets. Given the distinct economic situation of the equestrian sect one should not be surprised by such codependency.
II. ExchangeHJ.com Traffic & Associated Market Trends:
Trends for the final period of 2009 are a challenge in this report. Problems arising from a server switch over Thanksgiving resulted in a week of lost traffic statistics, and as December numbers rolled in it was obvious the new server interprets traffic quite differently from the old one. This inconsistency encouraged a mind-numbing research session regarding web site statistics, their commonly misinterpreted terminology, and the myriad of ways in which they can be compiled and rendered. If, perhaps, you’re feeling too intelligent lately I highly recommend this particular quest for knowledge. The feeling of incompetency is ridiculous.
A. Visits & Views at ExchangeHJ.com
Adjusting for New Server: Research revealed the number of Total Site Visits recorded each month is calculated differently on our new server, to the disappointing tune of about 15,000 fewer visits. However, key specific data; such as Total Number of Page Views, Average Visits per Day per defined section, and Visits/Averages for each horse, is consistent between the new and old server.
• In fact, and to the delight of banner advertisers, the number of Page Views logged on the new server in December set a record high for ExchangeHJ.com with 181,494 pages viewed, an increase of 220% since June.
• Despite confusion from the server switch a steady growth in Exchange traffic is irrefutable as numbers in October are 33% larger than numbers logged on the same server in June.
• For the purpose of consistency Daily Averages from November are used to analyze popularity trends below as this is the server from which the previous 15 months of data was pulled.
B. Web Site Trends: Hunter Popularity
Hunters continue to dominate with an average of 140 visits a day in November, an increase of 31% over Nov., 2008 numbers. This category mounted a striking comeback in 2009 with a 162% increase in popularity from July to November. Popularity is so comparatively high for Hunters it is best displayed in its own graph.
C. Web Site Trends: Jumper, Equitation Horse & Pony Popularity
1. Jumpers, the only group to not increase their daily average over 2008 numbers in our previous report, have undergone an impressive resurgence in popularity and averaged 72 visits a day in November, 2009; a 47% increase in popularity in one year.
a. New listings in November and December contributed to a 160% increase in popularity in the final quarter of 2009.
2. Ponies are a success story with a dramatic 67% increase in interest over 2008 numbers. They have ranked higher in popularity than Equitation horses for 3 of the last 5 months.
a. Ponies ranked 3rd in popularity for August, September & November, tied with the Equitation section for October, and fell slightly in December to 4th Place by averaging just two fewer visits per day than the Equitation horses.
b. Initially spurred by a proactive promotion at Pony Finals this category’s popularity has paid off nicely: From November-December our Pony section showed four sales, three extended trials on Buyer location, and the completion and/or scheduling of several additional trials.
c. Marked growth throughout 2009 in the number of Ponies listed with The Exchange established a large selection for Buyers to choose from, and further solidified our prevalence in this market.
3. The Equitation horse section logged the smallest percentage of growth among types with only an 11% increase in popularity over 2008 numbers. It has struggled to maintain pace with the rise in Pony popularity for a majority of the last quarter.
a. It should be noted most horses in this section are also promoted as Hunters and/or Jumpers, and typically receive consistently high site rankings because of the dual promotion, despite poor performance of the Equitation section as a whole.
Despite a huge discrepancy in number of Site Visits per the old and new servers it is comforting to note consistency when more specific questions are asked. The graphs above and below also include December numbers, and demonstrate consistent Daily Averages between the November and December months. It is also promising that December maintained such high Averages despite a lack of site activity due to holiday preoccupations. If you’ll recall (because I’m sure it’s memorable information) December, 2008 marked our lowest traffic for that year. Be that the fault of a plummeting economy or the distracting holidays I’m still unsure, though 2009 trends seem to hold the economy responsible.
D. Web Site Trends: Popularity of Hunter Price Ranges
Price Range trends are based on Hunter listings as they offer the most data. With the exception of the High 5 Figure category all Hunter price ranges increased in popularity in 2009. The following is an assessment of each range as indicated by its Daily Average of Visits in November, and what percentage that is of the overall traffic that chooses to sort Hunter listings by price on our web site.
1. High 5 Figure ($80-100K) Issue: This range logs the same daily average it did a year ago, and receives approximately 8% of Hunter traffic. It received a similarly disappointing grade in my last update.
a. I believe low supply in this range is responsible for its poor showing (no more than 2-3 horses for several months), and do not consider it a reliable indicator of market trends at this time.
b. Mid-High 5 Figure range will show this lack of interest is easily remedied by an influx of listings.
2. Low 5 Figure (Under $25K) range still holds the #1 spot in rankings, shows a 30% increase over 2008 numbers, and accounts for 24% of visitors that elect to sort Hunters by price.
a. This is the smallest percentage of growth for all ranges analyzed and represents our success in efforts to target promotions at the proper audience for show horse Buyers.
3. 6 Figure ($100K & Above) Hunters demonstrated a 56% increase in interest this year. It is the 2nd most popular price range on the web site and accounts for 20% of visitors that elect to sort Hunters by price.
a. This price range also houses the largest selection of horses on the web site, which has contributed greatly to its popularity.
i. A blessing and a curse, such proliferation makes for a highly competitive category. Horses are displayed in order of most recent updates and as such, horses lacking updates appear at the bottom of a very long page filled with very nice horses. These listings tend to suffer large drops in traffic over the duration of their Campaign.
4. Each taking 17% of Hunter traffic, the Low-Mid 5 Figure ($25-40K) & Mid 5 Figure ($40-60K) ranges tied for 3rd Place in November popularity. Together they account for 34% of Hunter traffic.
a. Mid 5 Figure interest showed an impressive 71% increase in one year, while the Low-Mid 5 Figures showed an increase of only 33%.
i. Growth in the Mid 5 Figure range again demonstrates our ability to target and refine an appropriate audience for show horse sales.
ii. The Low-Mid 5 Figure range houses a lot of sales (as will be shown below) and unlike the Under $25,000/Low 5 Figure range, I would prefer to see greater growth in this category.
5. Mid-High 5 Figure ($60-80K) interest has shown a healthy 60% increase in 2009, most of which occurred in November with the addition of several new horses to this category. It currently ranks 5th in popularity and accounts for 11.5% of traffic that elects to sort Hunters by price.
D. Web Site Trends: Price Ranges for Other Typesa. This range suffered from low population along with the High 5 Figure range in my last report. The addition of a few new horses greatly revitalized interest and influenced my decision to discard the low High 5 Figure statistics from this report.
Out of nerdish curiosity I pulled rankings for all Price Ranges and Types in December. Remember these trends represent only one month of traffic; as we continue to grow it should be possible to investigate broad trends more thoroughly.
1. The Low 5 Figure range is the most popular range for all Types.
2. The 6 Figure range is the second most popular range for all Types but Equitation Horses.3. With the exception of Ponies, the High 5 Figure price range is the least popular for all Types.
a. Again, each of these ranges currently hosts only 1 or 2 horses per Type.
4. Price Ranges for each Type as ranked by December popularity (most popular to least):
a. Jumpers: Low 5 > 6 Figure > Mid 5 > Low-Mid 5 > Mid-High 5 > High 5
b. Equitation: Low 5 > Mid 5 > Low-Mid 5 > 6 Figure > Mid-High 5 > High 5
i. The Equitation category might display an economic impact: The drop in Type rankings suggests the idea of a second “Equitation Only” horse, which gained so much popularity in the last two decades, may be loosing its appeal. Additionally, a proliferation of interest in lower price ranges suggests those still shopping for a second “Equitation Only” horse are spending considerably less money than in previous years.
c. Ponies: Low 5 > 6 Fig > Low-Mid 5 > Mid 5 > High 5 > Mid-High 5
III. Interest & Sales of horses listed with The Exchange:
A. Total Sales:
Sales & leases of horses listed with The Exchange totaled $1,775,000 in 2009.
1. $1.5 million of Total Sales were achieved in the last two quarters of 2009. Median sale price for 3rd & 4th Quarter - $75,000; Average sale price - $90,000
2. $660,000 in sales and leases completed between October and December.
a. Included 10 sales and 1 lease, plus 13 additional trials/off-property extended trials/ vettings.
b. Without all Sellers reporting in I show interest in at least 70% of 49 horses surveyed for this period.
B. Final Sale Prices:
Sale prices in 2009 ranged from $15,000-$300,000 with a median sale price of $45,000 and an average sale price of $80,000. Sales dominated in the Low-Mid 5 Figure, Mid 5 Figure and 6 Figure price ranges. Of these ranges the 6 Figure category achieved the most completed sales.
C. Trends by Quarter: Quarterly trends demonstrate the extreme lows and highs seen in 2009 sales:
1. Quarter 1:
Total Sales - $100,000, Median - $35,000, Average - $33,333 (3 sales)2. Quarter 2:
Total Sales - $135,000, Median - $40,000, Average - $45,000 (3 sales)3. Quarter 3:
Total Sales - $920,000, Median - $90,000, Average - $131,428 (7 sales)4. Quarter 4:
Total Sales - $620,000, Median - $57,500, Average - $62,000 (10 sales)
D. Price Adjustments:
56% of horses sold for less than original asking price. On average, this was 34% less than original asking price.
1. Predominantly, horses sold with adjusted prices were Childrens Ponies and Ch/AA Hunters. Most had original asking prices in the 5 figures.
2. Predominantly, horses sold for full asking price were Hunters competing successfully in 3’6” divisions. Most had original asking prices in the 6 Figure range.
3. Horses priced before the weight of the recession was realized suffered great reductions in order to achieve a sale, as much as 58% in some instances, and greatly affected the overall average.
4. Unfortunately, our Jumper listings in 2009 were too light to make any kind of valuable assessment.
Added 1/8/10: I have been notified of five sales or leases in various stages of completion this week which will log $250,000 in sales for a barely inaugurated 2010 (assuming stars align properly, appropriate sacrifices to the Mysterious Lameness Gods are made, and no one prematurely buys a custom nameplate for their “new” horse). Three of these sales were on my list as “None” or “Unknown Interest”, which raises the tally for documented interest in horses surveyed for this report to 74%. Also of notable occurrence this week were two price increases. These are all indications of a strong market in 2010.
So here we are, stuck in a rickety old box, perched on the crest of an unforeseen incline. White knuckles grip safety bars, necks crane and eyes strain to see what lies next in the tracks. We fear another lightening fast plunge into recessionary depths, but cling to signs this wild ride has come to end . . . that this outdated coaster has finally checked in for upgrades and repairs . . . that what goes up does not necessarily have to come back down.
I personally have been at battle with this rickety old coaster for years now, pleading for modifications to be made, modern materials to be used, and possibly some independent thought to be had. Our steady growth in the last two quarters of 2009 speaks to the benefits of out-of-the-box thinking, initiative, and personal attention in a depressed economy. To emerge from the greatest economic downturn of my adult life stronger than we entered into it is mind-boggling, but our persistence in seeking out new avenues of exposure, in personally attending to each aspect of marketing, and in maintaining superior standards despite overwhelming pressure to conform to the mainstream, has paid off handsomely for our clients. To finally be rewarded for such innovative tactics is an evolution long overdue in this industry.
Had I finished this report on time, before the first week of January interest, the following words would have been more cautious and careful; unwilling to sacrifice my neck in any sort of 2010 prediction. As it is I am behind as usual, and while I do not claim to be an authority on the matter, nor am I comfortable saying we’re out of the woods of trouble, I am cautiously enthusiastic for 2010. The basic corrections made by the economy on our market - the overpricing of average horses - needed to be addressed. From my viewpoint most Sellers have adjusted their efforts accordingly, and Buyers have responded exceedingly well. Should this trend settle and remain stable there’s no reason a strong, though maybe not voracious, sales market cannot be achieved in 2010.
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